Riffin' on '13
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A very interesting post on the IBM 5 in 5 which takes a human centric approach to writing about what the next 5 years have in store for us is here http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2012/12/the-ibm-5-in-5-our-2012-forecast-of-inventions-that-will-change-the-world-within-five-years.html
The presentation is here on youtube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=wXkfrBJqVcQ
and the gist is here
Touch: You will be able to reach out and touch through your phone
Sight: A pixel will be worth a thousand words
Hearing: Computers will hear what matters
Taste: Digital taste buds will help you to eat healthier
Smell: Computers will have a sense of smell
My thoughts on this are not mundane but approach a very different side of this problem. The sight, taste and smell aspects of development have been around for a pretty long time. They are not even the most daring of assumptions. I remember a Bugs Bunny cartoon which spoke about how "smellavision replaces Television"in 2020+ and I thought, wow, what an idea. Well, it does seem like my wow moment will be seen by me before long.
The kinect was a revolution in how we played our games. The quantified self was a really interesting movement that solidified the cult of Up, Fitbit and Fuel. Bendable mobile screens have been around for some time but havent been mass produced yet. I feel that technology is at a junction where you can play "Name that sci-fi thing-and-we-will-make-it". It really is a 3 part question that we should be asking.
1. What will I see myself use in the next 5 years?
2. What would I really want to own if it gets a little less expensive over the next 5 years?
3. What "Holy Cow" invention is going to make its way into the global subconscious in the next 5 years?
Substitute "next 5 years" with any time frame and the question would still be largely material.
The number 1 question has a few sub parts
a. What would I use because it is better than something that I use already?
b. What would I use because all my friends are using it?(for context because"Some digital content in this message" in my phone messaging system just gets annoying after a while)
c. What would make my life substantially better if I used that system now?
Lets take Mobile for example, I used a Nokia, then a Samsung and then switched to a Windows 7 because it did something that the other did not. Nokia made calls, Samsung allowed me to surf the internet and Windows had apps that made life substantially easier. I then switched to an iPhone because it was a better phone. Also, not having an iPhone effectively ruled me out of group messages and the usual psychological disintegration that comes with having the "uncool" product. These were still minor reasons but the clincher was the lack of apps that have been and continue to be the bane of the Windows Phone ecosystem. Some would argue that the iPhone allowed a lot more than just make calls and receive text messages and in that regard was a (c.). I wouldn't be so sure. The galaxy note is more of a (c.) than the longer iPhone 5.
The question 2 was the tablet for a long long time. I knew it had utility in the gym, I knew it was something that I wanted to use. I knew it had merit. But was the gym use case and the travel use case enough to justify having something that would have its own data plan and cost a little fortune? Does the jawbone become an app on your phone that you only pay a subscription fee instead of $130 for? Does runkeeper expand and become an app that tells you all about good living?
The question 3 this year was Google glass. I do not have the imagination to fathom what could come this year but it sure wont be a better Siri, we have been led one too many times down that path.
Year in review makes sense when we read it back and tally it for surprises and surmises. And in that respect,
let the questions guide but not stifle
let the memories be warm and a giggle,
let the times be new but tethered,
let life be easy but remembered,
let the checklist have consequence
The presentation is here on youtube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=wXkfrBJqVcQ
and the gist is here
Touch: You will be able to reach out and touch through your phone
Sight: A pixel will be worth a thousand words
Hearing: Computers will hear what matters
Taste: Digital taste buds will help you to eat healthier
Smell: Computers will have a sense of smell
My thoughts on this are not mundane but approach a very different side of this problem. The sight, taste and smell aspects of development have been around for a pretty long time. They are not even the most daring of assumptions. I remember a Bugs Bunny cartoon which spoke about how "smellavision replaces Television"in 2020+ and I thought, wow, what an idea. Well, it does seem like my wow moment will be seen by me before long.
The kinect was a revolution in how we played our games. The quantified self was a really interesting movement that solidified the cult of Up, Fitbit and Fuel. Bendable mobile screens have been around for some time but havent been mass produced yet. I feel that technology is at a junction where you can play "Name that sci-fi thing-and-we-will-make-it". It really is a 3 part question that we should be asking.
1. What will I see myself use in the next 5 years?
2. What would I really want to own if it gets a little less expensive over the next 5 years?
3. What "Holy Cow" invention is going to make its way into the global subconscious in the next 5 years?
Substitute "next 5 years" with any time frame and the question would still be largely material.
The number 1 question has a few sub parts
a. What would I use because it is better than something that I use already?
b. What would I use because all my friends are using it?(for context because"Some digital content in this message" in my phone messaging system just gets annoying after a while)
c. What would make my life substantially better if I used that system now?
Lets take Mobile for example, I used a Nokia, then a Samsung and then switched to a Windows 7 because it did something that the other did not. Nokia made calls, Samsung allowed me to surf the internet and Windows had apps that made life substantially easier. I then switched to an iPhone because it was a better phone. Also, not having an iPhone effectively ruled me out of group messages and the usual psychological disintegration that comes with having the "uncool" product. These were still minor reasons but the clincher was the lack of apps that have been and continue to be the bane of the Windows Phone ecosystem. Some would argue that the iPhone allowed a lot more than just make calls and receive text messages and in that regard was a (c.). I wouldn't be so sure. The galaxy note is more of a (c.) than the longer iPhone 5.
The question 2 was the tablet for a long long time. I knew it had utility in the gym, I knew it was something that I wanted to use. I knew it had merit. But was the gym use case and the travel use case enough to justify having something that would have its own data plan and cost a little fortune? Does the jawbone become an app on your phone that you only pay a subscription fee instead of $130 for? Does runkeeper expand and become an app that tells you all about good living?
The question 3 this year was Google glass. I do not have the imagination to fathom what could come this year but it sure wont be a better Siri, we have been led one too many times down that path.
Year in review makes sense when we read it back and tally it for surprises and surmises. And in that respect,
let the questions guide but not stifle
let the memories be warm and a giggle,
let the times be new but tethered,
let life be easy but remembered,
let the checklist have consequence
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